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2020-12-10
Unemployment Insurance Claims Signal Renewed
Recession
<
https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0NPbjiG4_8j4JiUN7iYr9YucA
> posted to grasping reality
The Macro News: Th
2020-12-10:
Starting last June with every week the US economy got better—at
least, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment
insurance fell when we calculate it on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Some of this was people who had been receiving unemployment
insurance fi nding jobs. Some of this was people reaching the end of
the benefi ts to which they were entitled. Nevertheless, if you were
people were flowing into the pool of those receiving unemployment
insurance payments then were getting out of it.
But this past week's numbers are a sign that that period has come to an
end. While one frost does not make a winter, both the seasonally
adjusted number of people continuing to receive and the number of
people newly claiming unemployment insurance benefi ts jumped up
last week.
The natural way to read this is that the third wave of the coronavirus
plague is starting to send the economy into renewed recession. It is, as
it was before, not because of lockdowns. As before, the principal
cause of the economy turning down is people getting scared, and
deciding that they will postpone spending that requires close personal
contact off to next year.
The professional Republicans appear to have decided to claim that
what the government needs to do is to keep people hungry this winter
so that they think they must go to work will-virus or nill-virus, and to
block government action to keep spending economy wide from
declining.
It’s going to be a bad winter.
Unemployment Insurance: Weekly Change in Seasonally Adjusted New & Continued Claims
