Loading document…
Opening in Pages for Mac...
Your browser isn’t fully supported.
For the best Pages for iCloud experience, use a supported browser.
Learn More
Cancel
Continue
J. B
radford DeLong
2828 Webster St.
Berkeley, CA 94750
(925) 708-0467
brad.delong@gmail.com
@delong
August 14, 2018
TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN
:
My estimates of how many of their constituents the Republican
California Republicans who voted for last year’s corporate tax
bill were subjecting to higher taxes via the addition of state
SALT taxes into the federal tax base.
I confess that I am flabbergasted by their support of the bill.
Back when I was an aide to Lloyd Bentsen, I was told that the
custom of the House was that, when a bill took dead aim at your
constituents for the clear and immediate benefit of others, you
might
vote for the rule in return for enough concessions on other
issues and with enough arm twisting. But you would not vote for
passage on the bill.
If you think these can be useful in any way, please use them. And
if you think of anything constructive I can do with them this
fall, please drop me a note.
Yours,
Brad DeLong
(925) 708-0467
brad.delong@gmail.com
<
https://www.icloud.com/pages/0eRZEJUdSDUf7ClLGvcp3e2bw
>
Summary: Representative, District, District , Orientation, Share of
Returns, and Share of AGI Subject to the SALT Tax Increase
•
2.97 billion dollars:
Mimi Walters
(Laguna Niguel, 45) (R+3): 46
%
of returns, 8.5
%
of AGI.
•
1.89 billion dollars:
Ed Royce
(Fullerton, 39) (Even): 40
%
of returns, 7.6
%
of AGI.
•
1.49 billion dollars:
Steve Knight
(Palmdale, 25) (Even): 42
%
of returns, 7.4
%
of AGI.
•
1.34 billion dollars:
Duncan Hunter
(Lakeside, 50) (R+11): 37
%
of returns, 6.5
%
of AGI.
•
1.28 billion dollars:
Ken Calvert
(Corona, 42) (R+9): 42
%
of returns, 6.9
%
of AGI.
•
960 million dollars:
Kevin McCarthy
(Bakersfi eld, 23) (R+14): 34
%
of returns, 5.9
%
of AGI.
•
910 million dollars:
Devin Nunes
(Tulare, 22) (R+8): 30
%
of returns, 5.5
%
of AGI.
•
860 million dollars:
Jeff Denham
(Atwater, 10) (Even): 30
%
of returns, 5.3
%
of AGI.
•
770 million dollars:
Doug LaMalfa
(Richvale, 1) (R+11): 31
%
of returns, 5.1
%
of AGI.
•
540 million dollars:
Paul Cook
(Yucca Valley, 8) (R+9): 29
%
of returns, 4.6
%
of AGI.
•
350 million dollars:
David Valadao
(Hanford, 21) (D+5): 17
%
of returns, 3.5
%
of AGI.
DEVIN NUNES: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING
TO MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY SALT TAX PROVISION
**DEVIN NUNES**
District 22: Central Valley:
Tulare—East Fresno
R+08: Safeness of Seat
30
%
: Percent of Returns
5.5
%
: Percent of AGI
$910 million SALT in 2014
288,000 tax returns in 2014
$16.627 billion AGI in 2014
$0.9124 billion deduction amount in 2014
49.6
%
: Income <$50K/year
22.5
%
: Poverty Rate
33.2
%
: White Collar
4.1
%
: Income >$200K/year
30
%
of tax returns in Devin Nunes's 22nd California Congressional District in 2014 would have been
penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase
in the tax base in 2014 would have been 910 million dollars. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a
precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to
—but the rough ballpark number is 225 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 225 million
dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Devin Nunes's constituents.
The relatively poor (for California) Central Valley 22rd contains only a small slice of people who are
possible benefi ciaries from the tax bill: 4.1
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater
than 200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was one-seventh of the number of returns that
itemized SALT. While incomes, and thus state income taxes, and property taxes are lower in Bakersfi eld
and its Central Valley surroundings than in highly-prosperous booming coastal California, adding people's
state and local taxes to the federal income tax base would still take a substantial bite out of their budgets.
The Central Valley 22rd is a safe Republican district, even though now plurality Latino, thanks largely to
the conservative political culture of Fresno. While highly enterprising and prosperous traditionally-
Republican California upper middle class's concerns are not the Republican Party's core concerns any
more, that does not seem to have mattered for Fresno.
With interests in intelligence and foreign affairs, Nunes had not put down deep K-Street lobbying roots in
his 16 years in the House of Representatives.
DAVID VALADAO: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING
TO MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY
SALT TAX PROVISION
**DAVID VALADAO**
District 21: Central Valley:
Southern Fresno-Eastern Bakersfield
D+05: Safeness of Seat
17
%
: Percent of Returns
3.5
%
: Percent of AGI
$350 million SALT in 2014
250,000 tax returns in 2014
$10.019 billion AGI in 2014
$0.3539 billion deduction amount in 2014
63.2
%
: Income <$50K/year
29.8
%
: Poverty Rate
16.8
%
: White Collar
1.6
%
: Income >200K/year
17
%
of tax returns in David Valadao's 21st California Congressional District in 2014 would have been
penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase
in the tax base in 2014 would have been 350 million dollars. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a
precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to
—but the rough ballpark number is 75 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 75 million
dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of
David
Valadao's
constituents.
The poor (for California) Central Valley 21st contains a very small slice of people who are possible
benefi ciaries from the tax bill: 1.6
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater than
200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was one-tenth of the number of returns that itemized
SALT. However, incomes and property taxes are low enough that the 21st is one of the very few districts
in California in which the fi nancial penalties imposed by adding state and local tax payments into the
federal income tax base is not salient: the penalty to the district is only a tenth as large as for some of the
more prosperous Republican districts in Greater Los Angeles.
The Central Valley 21st is now more than 70
%
Latino: it is a natural Democratic pickup. David Valadao
has prospered so far in terms of focusing on advancing legislative initiatives in Washington DC that
matter for the district. Hence his vote for the tax bill is a great puzzle.
He may well have decided that, with the ongoing catastrophe of the Trump administration and a possible
anti-Republican wave election in 2018, he has no future in California.
This would be a surprise:
the
Valadao Dairy in Hanford, CA is a prosperous and well-run part of the community, and David Valadao
remains a partner.
JEFF DENHAM: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING
TO MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY SALT TAX PROVISION
**JEFF DENHAM**
District 10: Middle Central Valley:
Stanislaus-Modesto
Even: Safeness of Seat
30
%
: Percent of Returns
5.3
%
: Percent of AGI
$860 million SALT in 2014
294,000 tax returns in 2014
$16.264 billion AGI in 2014
$0.8552 billion deduction amount in 2014
47.1
%
: Income <$50K/year
19.1
%
: Poverty Rate
27.0
%
: White Collar
3.1
%
: Income >$200K/year
30
%
of tax returns in Jeff Denham's 10th California Congressional District in 2014 would have been penalized had
state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase in the tax base in 2014
would have been 860 million dollars. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a precise estimate of how much
taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to—but the rough ballpark number is 210
million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 210 million dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of
Jeff Denham's constituents.
The relatively poor (for California) Central Valley 10th contains only a small slice of people who are possible
benefi ciaries from the tax bill: 3.1
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater than 200,000 dollars
a year. But by the same token that was one-ninth of the number of returns that itemized SALT. While incomes, and
thus state income taxes, and property taxes are lower in the Central Valley than in highly-prosperous booming
coastal California, adding people's state and local taxes to the federal income tax base would still take a substantial
bite out of their budgets.
The evenly-split white-Hispanic Central Valley 10th should be a competitive district. Thus one would imagine that
Jeff Dunham would believe he could not risk further eroding the allegiance of the highly enterprising and prosperous
traditionally-Republican California upper middle class. While its concerns are not the Republican Party's core
concerns any more, and it is leaking away, Jeff Dunham should not want to accelerate the process.
Dunham thus appears to perhaps be another one of those who has decided that the district will flip sooner rather than
later, especially given the ongoing chaos of the Trump administration and the possibility of an anti-Republican wave
election in 2018. Thus he may have become another who has shifted the constituents he serves from the state,
district, and constituents of California to his constituents among the House leadership and on K Street. Otherwise,
his support for the tax bill appears inexplicable as a matter of either politics or policy.
PAUL COOK: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING TO
MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY
SALT TAX PROVISION
**PAUL COOK**
District 8: Yucca Valley: Southeast California,
High Desert, San Bernardino County
R+09: Safeness of Seat
29
%
: Percent of Returns
4.6
%
: Percent of AGI
540 million dollars
251,000 tax returns in 2014
$11.736 billion AGI in 2014
$0.5350 billion deduction amount in 2014
53.8
%
: Income <$50K/year
21.8
%
: Poverty Rate
27.5
%
: White Collar
2.1
%
: Income >$200K/year
29
%
of tax returns in Paul Cook's 8th California Congressional District in 2014 would have been
penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase
in the tax base in 2014 would have been 540 million dollars. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a
precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to
—but the rough ballpark number is 110 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 110 million
dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Paul Cook's constituents.
The relatively poor (for California) 8th contains only a small slice of people who are possible
benefi ciaries from the tax bill: 2.1
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater than
200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was one-thirteenth of the number of returns that
itemized SALT.
The 75 year old Paul Cook may, according to the
Almanac of American Politics
at least, be the last Main
Street Republican. His 8th district is a safe Republican district. He has focused on his constituents—
especially his military and ex-military constituents—while in Congress. A U.S. Marine and a former
Commandant at Camp Pendleton, he fell in love with California and when he retired from the military he
stayed here rather than moving back to his native Connecticut, or moving elsewhere in the country. His
district is safe enough that he is not politically worried about doing favors for leadership. But his
constituents have a substantial stake in not having their state and local tax payments added into their
federal income tax base
.
DOUG LAMALFA: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING TO
MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY SALT
TAX PROVISION
**DOUG LAMALFA**
District 1: Richvale—Northeast California
R+16: Safeness of Seat (2012)
31
%
: Percent of Returns
5.1
%
: Percent of AGI
$770 million SALT in 2014
275,000 tax returns in 2014
$15.069 billion AGI in 2014
$0.7729 billion deduction amount in 2014
54.5
%
: Income <$50K/year
18.5
%
: Poverty Rate
33.2
%
: White Collar
3.2
%
: Income >$200K/year
$770 million. That was the amount in state and local tax deductions that Doug LaMalfa's constituents in California's
1st congressional district took in 2014. 31
%
of tax returns would have been penalized had state and local tax
payments been added into the federal income tax base. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a precise estimate
of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to—but the rough ballpark
number is 200 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 200 million dollars a year out of the incomes and
spending of Doug LaMalfa's constituents.
The relatively poor (for California) 1st district contains only a small slice of people who are possible benefi ciaries
from the tax bill: 3.2
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater than 200,000 dollars a year. But
by the same token that was one-ninth of the number of returns that itemized SALT. While incomes, and thus state
income taxes, and property taxes are lower than in highly-prosperous booming coastal California, adding people's
state and local taxes to the federal income tax base would still take a substantial bite out of their budgets.
The 1st may well be the safest, least competitive Republican district in California. The 1st district is the northeast
corner of the state. It includes three small cities: the resource-based Red Bluff and Redding, and Chico with its
campus of the Cal State branch of the California state university system, with the bulk of its population and
economic activity thoroughly rural.
Doug LaMalfa may thus believe he faces few political risks in siding with House leadership against his constituents
on this tax bill. But it is not something that anybody would have anticipated: LaMalfa has been a district-focused
member of the House, working cooperatively with his next-door neighbor John Garamendi on their important issues.
He chose the Agricultural and Natural Resource Committees for his assignments, rather than higher-profi le
assignments in foreign affairs and other national issues or assignments of greater interest to lobbyists.
His vote for the tax bill simply does not fi t.
DUNCAN HUNTER: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING
TO MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY
SALT TAX PROVISION
**DUNCAN HUNTER**
District 50: Inland San Diego: Escondido,
El Cajon
R+11: Safeness of Seat
37
%
: Percent of Returns
6.5
%
: Percent of AGI
$1.34 billion SALT in 2014
318,000 tax returns in 2014
$20.811 billion AGI in 2014
$1.3425 billion deduction amount in 2014
40.8
%
: Income <$50K/year
13.4
%
: Poverty Rate
31.6
%
: White Collar
5.6
%
: Income >$200K/year
37
%
of tax returns in Duncan Hunter's 50th California Congressional District in 2014 would have been
penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase
in the tax base in 2014 would have been 1.34 billion dollars. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a
precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to
—but the rough ballpark number is 300 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 300 million
dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Duncan Hunter's constituents.
As a relatively rich, suburban and exurban district in Greater San Diego, the 50th contains a noticeable
slice of people who are possible benefi ciaries from the tax bill: 5.6
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted
gross incomes greater than 200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was less than one-fi fth of
the number of returns that itemized SALT.
The 50th is one of the safest Republican districts in the state. Duncan Hunter is the successor to his father,
Duncan Hunter, in this seat. His father was in offi ce for the years 1980-2008, rising to be Chair of the
House Armed Services Committee. He thus has deep roots in the district
.
ED ROYCE: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING TO
MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY
SALT TAX PROVISION
**ED ROYCE**
District 39: Northern Orange County:
Anaheim-Fullerton
Even: Safeness of Seat
40
%
: Percent of Returns
7.6
%
: Percent of AGI
$1.89 billion SALT in 2014
328,000 tax returns in 2014
$24.575 billion AGI in 2014
$1.8797 billion deduction amount in 2014
30.9
%
: Income <$50K/year
11.6
%
: Poverty Rate
42.4
%
: White Collar
9.6
%
: Income >$200K/year
40
%
of tax returns in Ed Royce's 39th California Congressional District in 2014 would have been
penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase
in the tax base in 2014 would have been 1.89 billion dollars. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a
precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to
—but the rough ballpark number is 600 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 600 million
dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Ed Royce's constituents.
As a prosperous suburban district in Greater Los Angeles, the 39th contains a substantial slice of people
who are possible benefi ciaries from the tax bill: 9.6
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes
greater than 200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was less than one-fourth of the number of
returns that itemized SALT.
The 39th is now a competitive district. In 1988, the
Almanac of American Politics
reports, Orange County
in which the 39th lies was the strongest Republican county in the nation: Ronald Reagan's and before him
Richard Nixon's base. But Orange County has changed over the years: the 39th is now plurality Latino.
And, as noted above, the highly enterprising and prosperous traditionally-Republican California upper
middle class's concerns are not the Republican Party's core concerns any more.
Ed Royce has now spent 26 years in Washington and in the House of Representatives. He is now out of
sympathy with the pro-Russian foreign policy tilt of the Trump administration. But he has been in
Washington now a long time, and the constituents he serves may now be primarily in the Washington
foreign policy hawk and lobbyist community, rather than back here in California.
KEVIN MCCARTHY: REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER VOTING
TO MAKE HIS DISTRICT AND CONSTITUENTS POORER
BY
SALT TAX PROVISION
**KEVIN McCARTHY**
District 23: Bakersfield: South Central Valley
R+14: Safeness of Seat
34
%
: Percent of Returns
5.9
%
: Percent of AGI
$960 million SALT in 2014
274,000 tax returns in 2014
$16.247 billion AGI in 2014
$0.9595 billion deduction amount in 2014
47.6
%
: Income <$50K/year
19.8
%
: Poverty Rate
31.2
%
: White Collar
3.8
%
: Income >$200K/year
34
%
of tax returns in Kevin McCarthy's 23rd California Congressional District in 2014 would have been
penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase
in the tax base in 2014 would have been 960 million dollars. We do not have suffi cient detail to produce a
precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to
—but the rough ballpark number is 240 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 240 million
dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Kevin McCarthy's constituents.
The relatively poor (for California) Central Valley 23rd contains only a small slice of people who are
possible benefi ciaries from the tax bill: 3.8
%
of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater
than 200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was one-ninth of the number of returns that
itemized SALT. While incomes, and thus state income taxes, and property taxes are lower in Bakersfi eld
and its Central Valley surroundings than in highly-prosperous booming coastal California, adding people's
state and local taxes to the federal income tax base would still take a substantial bite out of their budgets.
The Central Valley 23rd may well be the safest, least competitive Republican district in California. While
highly enterprising and prosperous traditionally-Republican California upper middle class's concerns are
not the Republican Party's core concerns any more, Kevin McCarthy
may well
not need to care.
Moreover, he is not doing the bidding of the House leadership here: he is the House leadership. The shape
of this tax bill is in substantial part his strategic choice.
